Haydock Ascendant Stakes

Key Statistics:

The last 5 Ascendants Stakes have all seen a different trainer pick up the win, with most recent success in 2024 being Charlie Fellows with the colt LUTHER, who has since gone on to win a group 2 and be placed in a group 1.

The most recent trainer that has won this race and is returning this year is John Gosden as he took the spoils with FOUNDATION a decade ago! Therefore, trainer trends may not be a good indication of which horse to follow in this renewal, however, the Gosden's have the very exciting PUBLISH this year and could win this race again 10 years later.

There is only one filly in the race this year in the form of MIDNIGHT TANGO, however, filly's have a very poor record in this race as not one has won since SINGAPORE LILLY won, all the way back in 2010 and she was 16/1 on the day! Albeit not many filly's have ran in comparison to the boys, this stat would be alarming for those that fancy MIDNIGHT TANGO to win this year. She does have sex allowance and is rated 96, but history tells us that this wont be enough to win.

Most horses who have won this race before have had a maximum of around 40 days between their last race and resting before the Ascendent Stakes. This statistic checks for all horses except for one which is the outsider TAILGUNNER JOE who ran just over 43 days ago. 43 is around the maximum of days a winner has rested before winning and the average amount of time is nearer the 30 day mark. Using the 30 days it makes it more interesting as only 2 haven't ran in the last 30 days and that's TAILGUNNER JOE and PUBLISH! This could be telling against others that have had more recent runs. He was due to run in the Solario Stakes but the ground was not ideal and so prep for this race may have not been the best...interesting.

Race Preview + Tips

Runner Overviews:

• PUBLISH: Runs for Gosden's who have previously won this race, is a colt which have a good strike rate of winning this race, has some very impressive form such as beating Catullus (who then went on and won his next race, full of well bred horses, by 7+ lengths.) Could improve again and this extra furlong from what he's used to could really help him. He's full of ability and a very exciting prospect, stall 8 not ideal if he doesn't get away well, but is easily the main standard in this group. He did miss the Solario Stakes and that could've messed with his prep for this but that would be the only negative for this boy.

• BOW ECHO: Market suggesting this will be PUBLISH main threat and they have every reason to believe so as he has untapped potential and has only ran once, but that one run was very eye-catching. He last ran 15th August and so will be very fit and prepared for this race. He ran a straight mile on debut and never got out of second gear, he'll have to be smart here with the bend at Haydock and try not to get into trouble coming out of stall 2. It's hard to imagine another 2 year old colt this year that could beat PUBLISH easily, this (on paper) may be the best there is in hopes of beating him from now on.

• MIDNIGHT TANGO: The only filly in this race and they don't have a good record at all in this race and that would be a worry. She is the most exposed out of all of the runners but you know what you'll get with her and could be in the top half of finishers here.

• SHAYEM: Has ran at Haydock on it's first and only start, didn't do anything too flashy on debut but was gutsy and found his way to the line. May improve further with upping in distance but will need to improve an unfathomable amount to win this you'd have to think.

• GLACIUS: This is one that could outrun his odds as was up against it on debut against some nice types and still prevailed to win, one to keep an eye on.

• HE'S WALIIM: Perhaps didn't like the soft ground last out, quick turn around as running only 1 week later may not be enough time to get back to peak fitness, potential to run flat here.

• BOURBON BLUES: First time at a mile here, bit more exposed than others and was gelded before running a race. Has been some big prices and looks like he will struggle against these future group winning horses.

• TAILGUNNER JOE: Big price and well beat on debut before following that up with a nice win on soft ground, has had quite a long time off and would be a negative for a race of this nature. Would be hard to see winning if fully fit anyway.

Final Verdict:

Winner - PUBLISH

Next Best - BOW ECHO

One To Watch - GLACIUS