Newmarket Saturday 12th July - Betting Tips

Banbury Cup - MORE THUNDER + AALTO e/w

MORE THUNDER - One of the best handicapped horses right now and was so close in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot when coming 2nd and having to pass a large field to just miss out. That was over 6f and so this slight step up in trip to 7f should suit a lot better and get more improvement out of MORE THUNDER. The harder ground is also a positive and this looks to be the best horse in the race, with a lot less horses here and that extra furlong that will help and on top of the fact this could easily be a group horse, it should get very close.

AALTO e/w - Ian Williams trains this horse and has had success in this race last year with this exact horse albeit off a mark of 88 but is now at a mark of 92 and of course is a year older. Ian Williams has already had success at this meeting this year in a big handicap with ONEFORTHEGUTTER winning the bet365 trophy handicap. This has been the plan for AALTO as it's last 3 runs have been runs that do not suit the horse as 2 runs were over soft ground and 1 was over a mile which doesn't suit either. That was clearly an attempt to lower it's mark which was somewhat a success as it's dropped from a mark of 94 to 92, it may have needed to drop lower to get success here but this quick 7f should suit and at 22/1 its a great e/w angle.

Superlative Stakes - ITALY

Has been held in very high regard since his one and only run which it won quite comfy. Since that run, ITALY has been grouped to horses such as CITY OF TROY who won this back in 2023 before beating nearly everything in its path and racking up to over £2 million in prize money and retiring with an official rating of 128! ITALY won his maiden nicely and quickened away well in the closing stages at short odds of 4/9, further adding to the thoughts of this horse being special and having big potential. The horse that came up 1 short in that race went to Royal Ascot and finished 2nd in the Chesham Stakes and so the form for ITALY has been boosted massively.

Graphic from @RacingPost

When asked about the colt ITALY, Aiden O'Brien stated 'We're looking forward to him. He's a lovely horse, we think he'll come forward from his maiden and we're looking forward to seeing what he'll do' (RacingTV). Should be hard to beat for a stable that are in fine form, as per usual, and ITALY is currently 4/6 for this race and already 12/1 for the 2000 Guineas after just winning a maiden so far.

Dubai July Cup Stakes - SPY CHIEF e/w

Currently 25/1 and is one of a few challengers in this race with very low mileage having only ran 4 times with form of 6212 where he has improved with every run and has shown that good ground and 6f suits very well which is what he will get here. Last time he ran on the same conditions and distance as today he won by a staggering 5 1/2 Lengths, from that he went to the Jersey Stakes where he managed 2nd and was in-front of some rated 110 and over such as SEAGULLS ELEVEN and COMANCHE BRAVE. Stall 14 is not ideal but a lot of the horses in this race have some questions to answer such as NOTABLE SPEECH who takes a big drop to 6f for first time ever, although as he was supplemented you'd suspect that he's going well at home and should do well here but at 9/4 it's too short to take that risk. BELIEVING had a worryingly bad run last time and so can't be picked with confidence, INISHERIN has been inconsistent, FLORA OF BERMUDA has looked good but only has the 2 wins to date. There are so many questions for a lot of this field to answer and so an unexposed type that has proved he likes hard ground and 6f seems to be a good choice, especially when its a big 25/1 and so only requires lower stakes and many betting companies offering extra places, its a great e/w approach to this tricky race.