What it takes to win the Oaks and the art of picking the winner
- Matthew Johnson
- Jun 4
- 5 min read
Updated: Jun 23
Whilst the derby may take the headlines, the oaks is a chance for the fillies to make a name for themself and this year is no different. There are some unbeaten, improving and unexposed types in this race. This has made this years Oaks that much harder to try and pick the winner.
What makes the Oaks unique to other races?
The race in exclusively for 3 year old fillies that means a filly can only run in this race once in it's life and so set up and preparation has to be perfect. The Oaks is ran over 1m4f over the Epsom track, this is important as it's the Epsom track that makes this race different to others. The track consists of uneven ground, an overall undulating track with a big hill to climb before turning Tattenham corner and then a dip down to the winning post where there is another (but smaller) incline.
What it takes to win:
Balance
Speed
Must know to settle
Steady Galloper
Proven stamina
Maintain top speed
Deal with undulating ground
Who wins?
The oaks this year has a very exciting filly called DESERT FLOWER who boasts the only unbeaten record in this race and won the 1000 guineas at Newmarket last time out and is rated a huge 117.
However, she hasn't raced over 1m (8f) and so there is serious speculation around if she will be able to stay the distance or not. Her breeding actually suggests that she wont as most fillies by Night Of Thunder get there stamina from their Dam or Dams Sire. With DESERT FLOWER her Dam is PROMISING RUN who did get 1m2f but that was it's maximum as it tried a 1m4f race at ascot and came 11/13. This suggests that if DESERT FLOWER is to win, it isn't without some doubt. As well as this, a big part of the Oaks is being able to settle in the race to conserve energy for the steady inclines and also the fast pace finish, as DESERT FLOWER is used to strong paced 8f races, it may be hard to get her to settle, another disadvantage.
There's no doubt that DESERT FLOWER is the classiest horse in the race but there are doubts around settling and if she'll stay the distance, in my opinion if she wins it was due to her class rather than this being the ideal trip. Even if she wins comfortably I would be willing to say she is in a different league to them but still feel she'll get caught out at 1m4f against others. I'd place her at 1m-1m2f as her best trip. It will be exciting to see what she can do and if she's up to the task but especially at the current price of 5/4 it's better to go about having an E/W on others that have less doubts about them. It's also important to note that MINDING won the 1000 guineas and then went on to win the Oaks after never racing at 1m4f and so it is not an impossible task and has been done before.
O'Brien again in the Oaks?
Aiden O'Brien has had huge success in both the Oaks and the Derby and has even won the Oaks back to back to back. He does not have the favourite this year and has 3 in this race in the form of, MINNIE HAUK, GISELLE and WHIRL. However, not having the favourite isn't a bad sign as he has won this race with 7/1, 13/2 and even 50/1 and so the price means nothing to how they will perform.
Ryan Moore (main jockey for Aiden O'Brien) has chosen to ride MINNIE HAUK, I can't imagine it being an easy decision as they all have good claims as to why they may win this race, however, the two I think have the better chances are MINNIE HAUK and WHIRL. MINNIE HAUK won the Cheshire Oaks last time out which is a good prep race for this and won nicely. It showed the stamina it has and also how hard it is to get past when reaching top gear and also that it can maintain high speed. As well as this, Aiden has said that it has been working a lot better than it had before the Cheshire Oaks and so I expect it to go even better here. Less doubts about stamina and distance with this one but with all others that aren't DESERT FLOWER the big question is do they have enough quality to beat her.
Small mention on WHIRL who absolutely bolted up last out in the Musidora Stakes (another good prep race) who may prefer a faster pace and has shown it is also hard to pass and won going away over the 10f and so a step up in trip should only see improvement from the filly. I'd have to put the pick from Ryan down to what both horses have been doing at home and how he felt on both of them and so I think MINNIE HAUK slightly edges it but I have them very close on paper. However, it does depend on how the race pans out.
Unexposed Outsider
A small bit of recognition should go to ELWATEEN who didn't disgrace herself in the 1000 Guineas when grabbing 4th, and I have to mention her as based on her debut you would imagine she has a huge engine and step up in trip should help. She showed good qualities at Newmarket and will definitely be a top filly, whether she has the quality to take down this field I'm not sure but she will come out the race all the more better for running in it I'm sure.
Summary
Overall it should be a great race with questions being answered about a few of these. Does DESERT FLOWER stay? Did Ryan Moore pick correctly? Is there a hidden gem that has been looked over? I think IF DESERT FLOWER stays the trip well she will take the world of beating. On the flip side if she doesn't I see it going the way of Aiden O'Brien again and probably in the form of MINNIE HAUK. WHIRL should stay on well in closing stages but probably won't be first past the post based on trainers comments. Finally, one that will improve massively from this is ELWATEEN.
Betting Tips: (If DESERT FLOWER drifts then on her but can't take 5/4)
MINNIE HAUK E/W
If big drift on the day WHIRL e/w
Main bet would be MINNIE HAUK e/w unless DESERT FLOWER drifts or is boosted and then would be silly to leave her at that point.
Agree or Disagree, let me know below or on twitter @TbredThoughts
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