Who will win the Epsom Derby 2025? Analysis, Form and Prediction

The Epsom Derby is just days away and the biggest race in British flat racing is promised to be as exciting as ever. This preview will breakdown: what is needed to win a derby, the questions that have been raised about this years contenders, trial form for the race and the best approach to conquer Epsom's undulating course and finally my predictions as to who may win this years very competitive renewal.

Why is Epsom so special and how is it different to other courses?

Firstly, the layout of Epsom's course is what makes it such a tough race and why it takes the complete racehorse to win. The track is undulating and so it really tests a horses stamina and the gate the horse is in plays a big role as they come away from the rail and then gradually make their way back over to get a better run and so if drawn very low or very high you can find yourself very wide at the turn or very far in the pack as it may be harder to get a competitive position. In order to win the Derby the horse needs, balance, high cruising speed, turn of foot, good temperament, high top speed, must be able to maintain top speed and much more. This is why the winner of the Derby is more times than not, a better overall racehorse than others in the race.

This years competitive field

This years race includes many unexposed types that have not raced at this track and over this distance. This is not too worrying as many that have won this before had not ran at this distance before winning it. However, this makes it all the more difficult to see who may stay the distance and who may fail. Despite this, I have studied all the form and runs of all the runners and have made my prediction of who may win and tried to answer the questions that need answering such as will the horses stay and I have also highlighted what is important to look for in previous runs and broke it down to see easily.

Small summary of all runners

1. Green Storm - May be outclassed here even though is a nice rating of 107, owners have had big priced horses placed in this before but this looks a big ask.

   
   

2. Rogue Impact - Very poor last run may be better up in trip but would need to immensely better and hard to imagine that happening, also stall 1 so even more of a task on its hands.

   
   

3. Nightime Dancer - Actually ran relatively well in derby trial but didn't have the stamina which is a big problem for a race such as this and so others preferred.

   
   

4. Al Wasl Storm - Has been progressive and has won over this distance last out. Others in that race were closing late and it was a slow time that day so not promising.

   
   

5. Lazy Giff - Had a great run when it came back fresh last time. Was 2nd to Lambourn who did look better but could've improved and may outrun its high odds but can't see it winning

   
   

6. Sea Scout - May be ridden near the pace and despite t being rated 105 I think it has a huge amount to find and so no where near the top in my opinion.

   
   

7. Tuscan Hills - Stall 6 is a small positive, related to an Oaks winner, was 7/11 in a weirdly raced Dante in my opinion, however, hard to see it getting close although Amo Racing have had a few big prices get close.

   
   

8. Tennessee Stud - Looks like it may be outclassed here

   
   

9. New Ground - Has been supplemented for this. I actually don't mind it, was clearly too keen last time and will need to settle better for this race, should get the distance although stall 17 is not helpful and it may need softer ground.

   
   

10. Tornado Alert - Should be okay based off guineas form where it was prominent, trainer said it came out the race well, although, I think others have better claims here.

    

    Nightwalker - Was eye catching in my opinion in most of its race where, although not winning, it was clear that step up in trip will get the best out of it. His latest run was in the Dante which I think was more of a turn of foot race rather than more of a who can stay race. It had an awkward passage through and did all it's best work late on, further suggesting an extra 2f will help. I love his running style and how relaxed he look whilst he's racing which is important for this race.

    
    

11. Stanhope Gardens - Hard to gage how good he really is but held in high regard. Again a good running style and should be good although I think the stable have a better horse in the race.

    
    

12. Midak - Another that has been supplemented for this, could be better now upped in trip but don't think it has the superstar quality that is required for this.

    
    

13. Damysus - Ran a great race in a weird Dante stakes, no doubt it will get the distance, probably wanted to see more from him but like his running style and is one on the shortlist for me.

    

    Lambourn - I've liked this one for a while and think it will stay all day, what makes him special is that although he may take a while to get to his top speed, when he's there he can stay at that speed for a while, Wouldn't be surprised if he's ridden near the front. Think he'll enjoy the test of Epsom and again is another with a great running style.

    
    

14. The Lion In Winter -Disappointing in the Dante but was far too keen, if less keen and less of a pull going round here, it has a huge chance. Finished the Dante well all things considered with being slightly hampered and not being fully pushed out when the win was out of the question. Too big of a risk at current prices, could be tempted with a drift on the day.

    
    

15. Pride of Arras - Won debut nicely and then came back from long time off to win the Dante, held in high regard although apparently is normally not that settled and so if that's the case come the Derby it could find it out.

    
    

    

    Ruling Court - Stall 7 is very ideal for early position, on for the triple crown and has bags of quality. No doubt the best horse in the race. Only question is if he gets the trip or not. I think he will, not based off pedigree but based off how Buick rode him in the guineas, he didn't ride him like he needed to fly, he rode him gradually so that he will be at the line first. We've seen what Field of gold can do and no doubt he'll be amazing at 1m2f, therefore I think this boy can get 1m4f and if not truly staying he may have the quality to see it out. May need a small drift as too small with the questions around him but hope he settles as he's used to 1m races and cannot afford to be too keen in this race.

    
    

16. Delacroix - Aiden stated they'd seen this as a Derby horse but I don't get the vibe from watching it. Especially at 3/1 it's far too short as if you imagine that The Lion In Winter wasn't as keen Ryan would be on him no question. Furthermore, Delacroix has had issues when they have gone fast and I think the Derby will be a staying test this year and I don't know if he'll have all the quality. He should be close but at 3/1 I'm happy to let him win.

Final Thoughts

This is the race I want to get right and I think it's important to note that the Dante seemed a weird race and I don't think we saw the true run from all horses. Therefore, I haven't relied on that form too much. I'd be happy for LAMBOURN e/w play and hope he's ridden prominent and that he is asked to quicken before others, which sounds weird to say, but to reiterate the point he takes a while to get to top speed but when there he can maintain the speed and so getting him to top speed earlier rather than later is ideal. RULING COURT is hard to ignore as IF he stays he should be too classy, maybe a small drift is needed and hope the ground stays dry. NIGHTWALKER is my longshot who may have a chance as it was between him and DAMYSUS but I prefer the way NIGHTWALKER runs and think he'll benefit more from the step up in trip, he also seems o settle well which is a key thing I looked for in this race.